On Tuesday, Manchester City took a significant step towards securing Champions League qualification when they beat Aston Villa 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium. Villa, who are also very much in the hunt for a Champions League spot, held their own in the match and were looking likely to earn a point before an injury-time goal from Matheus Nunes brought City the victory. But how does the race for the Champions League spots look after that result?
Image: artjazz, Bigstockphoto.
How Things Stand
Thanks to solid performances by various English teams in all three Uefa competitions this term, the Premier League has been allocated an extra qualification spot for next season’s CL. As such, the clubs finishing in the top five in this season’s EPL will earn a place in next season’s elite European tournament. Liverpool are obviously home and hosed on that front as they canter towards the top-flight title. And Arsenal look almost certain to join them in the Champions League (barring a catastrophic collapse), which leaves five clubs battling it out for the remaining three CL places. Here’s how the top of the table looks at present (23rd April 2025):
| Pos | Team | Played | Points | Goal Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 33 | 79 | 44 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 33 | 66 | 34 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 34 | 61 | 23 |
| 4 | Nott’m Forest | 33 | 60 | 14 |
| 5 | Newcastle United | 33 | 59 | 18 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 33 | 57 | 18 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 34 | 57 | 5 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 33 | 49 | 12 |
Although it’s mathematically possible for Bournemouth to get into the top five (and, technically, even Fulham and Brighton below them), we can’t see that scenario materialising. So – assuming Arsenal don’t fluff their lines – we’ve got Man City, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea and Aston Villa playing for third, fourth and fifth. The race appears wide open as all these sides are capable of putting a solid run together, or indeed slipping up against the odds. Let’s take a look at who has the most favourable fixtures remaining.
The Run-in
Here are the remaining Premier League fixtures for the teams currently positioned third to seventh in the table.
- Man City – Wolves (h), Southampton (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)
- Nottingham Forest – Brentford (h), Crystal Palace (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (h)
- Newcastle – Ipswich (h), Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a), Everton (h)
- Chelsea – Everton (h), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), Man United (h), Nottingham Forest (a)
- Aston Villa – Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a), Tottenham (h), Man United (a)
Who Has the Easiest Run-in?
On the face of it, Man City appear to have the easiest run-in on the basis that they don’t face any sides currently in the top eight. They also face bottom side Southampton and Wolves, though the latter have put a decent run together of late. As such, we think Villa’s run-in might just be a little easier.
Away at Old Trafford is never the easiest way to finish a season, but we think the Red Devils might have mentally departed for their summer holidays by then, or be focussed on Europe, and Tottenham at home should be three points in the bag based on Spurs’ current form.
And Who Has the Toughest?
Chelsea have the toughest-looking run-in on paper, buy a country mile. Next up they face an Everton side who are renewed and firing on all cylinders after the return of former boss David Moyes. Then – after a Europa Conference League away match in Sweden against Djurgården – they welcome table-topping Liverpool to Stamford Bridge, which won’t be easy whether Liverpool have wrapped up the title by then or not.
A home match in the Europa Conference League follows against their Swedish opponents, before arguably Chelsea’s trickiest remaining match in the Premier League: away to Newcastle. Things don’t get too much easier after that, with Man United visiting the Bridge before a final-day trip to Nottingham Forest, who will probably also be after the points to secure Champions League football.
What Do the Bookies Think?
The Premier League’s fifth Champions League qualifying spot wasn’t confirmed until recently, so most bookies ran (and still run) markets on teams finishing in the top four but some are now offering odds on the top 5. Based on that market, Man City are 1/20, Newcastle 2/7, Nottingham Forest 2/7, Chelsea Evens, and Villa 4/1. As mentioned this is a top 5 market for a team to qualify for the Champions League rather than the traditional top 4 betting.
Conclusion: Which Teams Will Finish in the Top Five?
There’s no doubt Villa’s last-minute defeat to Man City was a setback in their quest to qualify for the CL once again, but we still feel Unai Emery’s men have a better chance than Chelsea as things stand. For us, the bookies are being a little too optimistic about Chelsea’s chances of finishing inside the top four. Based on their Europa Conference League involvement and their relatively tough run-in, we think Enzo Maresca’s side will finish sixth, or perhaps even seventh.
Given that Man City are only four points ahead of Chelsea and Villa, the bookies are perhaps also being a little generous to Pep Guardiola’s men. It’s fair to say City have turned the corner and rediscovered some decent form of late, but they are still not back to where they were last season and could be vulnerable to a defeat or two before the season’s out.
Forest have a fairly favourable run-in but their chances of CL football might well come down to their final-day clash against Chelsea. It could be a ‘winner takes all’ affair, with ‘all’ being a place at Europe’s top table next term. But it’s time to cut to the chase. Here’s how we think the table will look at the end of the season:
- Liverpool
- Arsenal
- Manchester City
- Newcastle United
- Aston Villa
- Nottingham Forest
- Chelsea
All things considered, we think that Villa’s easier run-in, coupled with Chelsea’s European distractions and Forest’s recent stuttering form, will mean it will be the fans of Chelsea and Forest who will be disappointed after the final day’s clashes.